Interesting. I didn't know we were that reliant on those industries.
Saw this on another forum:
Texas will buck national economic slowdown, economist says
Austin job growth will rise to 4 percent, he predicts.
By By Claudia Grisales
Friday, February 23, 2007
As the national economy is expected to lose steam thanks in part to a housing slowdown, several Texas regions, including Austin, are poised to buck the trend, an economist said Friday.
Through 2008, the Austin, San Antonio and Dallas-Fort Worth regions will see jobs added at a faster pace than they did between 2004 and 2006, said Rakesh Shankar, senior economist for Moody's Economy.com. The national economy, however, will see tepid job growth.
"At the national level, the economy is bound to slow," Shankar said during an Austin visit Friday. However, "the risks that are really major for the nation are not risks for Texas."
"The main theme is Texas is in a much better position than the national economy," he added.
A housing bust and the struggling domestic auto industry are among the risks that will put a damper on the national economy in the coming year.
Growth in the national gross domestic product is expected to remain below 3 percent during the next year, signaling a slowdown, Shankar said.
And many jobs tied to the national housing industry, such as construction, are expected to scale back.
"Because of the housing bust nationally, job creation has really slowed quite a bit," Shankar said.
But Austin is expected to post a job growth rate of above 4 percent, which is above the 3.4 percent seen during the 2004 to 2006 period.
The revival of the tech industry is one factor, Shankar said, and "the state government and university are in a really good position."
For San Antonio, fueled by steady growth from local tourism and military operations as well as new expansions such as the Toyota Motor Corp. plant, the workforce will grow 3.2 percent, up from 2.7 percent in 2004-2006.
Houston is probably the state's biggest economic hot spot, Shankar said, thanks to its sheer size and broad-based growth and booming energy industry.
Also, Houston reaps the benefits of growing international trade through its port operations.
"As long as international trade is expanding and improving, Houston is going to benefit," he said.
Dallas is one of the state's weakest metro areas, since it relies heavily on defense contractors and transportation, which are heading for a slowdown. There will be less spending for contractors, while trucking firms, rail transportation and warehouse services are expected to see declining business.
Interesting. I didn't know we were that reliant on those industries.
Last edited by jsoto3; 23 February 2007 at 05:58 PM.
Same here. I would've thought San Antonio and/or El Paso.
Celebrating the urban greatness of Texas: Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, El Paso and Fort Worth.
Well, I'm sure it's relative growth. I am sure the absolute magnitudes of growth in Dallas are larger than those of El Paso. And Austin is not all that big either (Is it larger or smaller than Fort Worth?). So factoring the 1 milliion plus size of Dallas, I'm sure it's looking pretty good compared to El Paso - it probably doesnt even come close. And factoring the Dallas suburban metro area, then the Dallas metro area comes out ahead even higher, I'm sure. Heck, I'm sure Fort Worth and it's surrounding suburbs are also looking pretty good, also.
It's not too clear in the article, but I'm thinking Rakesh Shankar is talking about growth rate, rather than net growth.Originally Posted by GuerillaBlack
I really hope trade and energy industries growth ratchet up the population growth in Houston. My Texas pride would be damaged if Metro Atlanta population moves ahead of Houston....
If tech industry revival is anticipated, wouldnt Dallas show the greatest overall gain?
I heard the tech industry in Dallas is quite good right now.
In terms of population growth, I don't think Dallas/Fort Worth can be considered "weak." And it appears that the tech, retail, and real estate industries are still strong here. Sounds like someone has penis envy.
So true, and such a funny line. However, in all honesty I think that forecast is more wishful thinking than anything substantive.Originally Posted by Phillip
Thanks mgd!! Just a quick scan of definitions, clears up most of the information haze and pollution found in the newspaper article.Originally Posted by mgd323
Rates and indexes are great, but the bottom line shows where the beef is. It will be very interesting to compare population & job growth between DFW and Houston. The past couple years (I think), more new jobs were found in the Houston area than DFW, yet the population in DFW tallied more new residents. It the pattern continues, it's something worth looking into.Originally Posted by tamtagon
I'm not too worried about the comparison. Dallas has done well in the past couple of decades diversifying its industries, this being something our neighbors to the south have not done so well. I read an article in the NY times recently describing Houston's economy being something like 60 plus percent tied to the oil industry. It was an article they did about good times in Houston. Dallas was once mostly tied to banking/finance/trade. Then we had the collapse in the 80's hurting our banks in town and a lot of consolidation. So, due to market playing out different industries took hold taking advantage of our low cost of living and the available work force. Then we had a large concentration of tech firms, until the bust. Now we have other industries taking hold. Like health care and trade. Our medical industry is playing catch up to meet the demands of our ever growing population, something Steve Brown talked about I believe in 2005. We also have the entrepernuer spirit here in Dallas that has long been deep rooted in Dallas ever since the founding father of the city. For example (some history here) in our early years the citizens of Dallas banned together to donate land to the Texas something rail line to keep it going through Waco. Waco had a bigger population and money at the time to lure it, but Dallas was much more aggressive and many gambeled. Also, the city's founding father tried to make trade our main engine by using the Trinty as a shipping channel (well we know how that turned out). I'll have to look it up in my college thesis to get all the facts straight. You look at the industries here that have a strong prevalance and we are sitting good. This includes trade, aviation, banking, fashion, some oil, health care, some energy firms, builders/developers, farming, our fair share of fortune 500 companies, technology, etc. A couple stand out from the rest but not one industry dominates unlike our neighbor to the south. Houston seems to go through either Hot Hot Hot times or rather cool times, typically due to having a huge tie with energy. With that said they also have a good concentration of energy firms (many with international roots) that is more prevalant then it was just 10 yrs ago. That will stablize Houston more so now then it did in the past. Also, my observation of development, tells me (at least) that developers are no longer fearful of developing in Dallas and our central core will continue to see development that has long lagged from the 80's. If Dallas does lag behind the rest for a bit, it will be short lived before something else moves in and sets up shop.
Last edited by slfunk; 26 February 2007 at 01:59 PM.
Going by the data on the fed's site, Houston has had a much better run over the last 20 years with much less volatility; we're still trying to dig out of the 2000 bust, while Houston was largely unscathed (it looks like we were neck-and-neck up until that point). With oil staying above $40 for the next few years Houston will probably continue to have the stronger economy, but that doesn't diminish anything that's been happening here. The one project that could have a huge impact on our economy will be the new TI plant, but I'm not aware of any employment projections beyond the 1,000 highly paid people actually working at the plant.
Don't get too excited about the new TI plant. It will be mothballed before it is opened.Originally Posted by mgd323
Well then, that building would be a perfect place for a Sams Club or Super Walmart...it all works out.
But why do you say that?
Because I talked with people involved or hoping to be involved once it opened. Turns out the cost of putting out chips is dropping so fast that the equipment costs of doing it here throw the cost of production out the window when compared to what they can do in Asia. So, in other words, we can't compete.Originally Posted by mgd323
While I was trying to find any updates on the plant, I at least found some employment projections...let's hope it works out.
Texas Instruments to Build World's Most Coveted High-Tech Factory in Texas
Source: Site Selection Webzine by Ron Starner
Full Article - Site Selection
DALLAS TI bankrolled it high-stakes gambit on a belief that the innovation coming out of Texas labs and universities will drive increased demand in the global chip market. The $3 billion project to build TI's second 300 millimeter wafer fab in 3 years the largest capital investment in the history of Texas is expected to break ground in 2005 and employ 1,000 workers upon full production. How Texas beat out China and other low-cost locations for this prized factory is a story in unusual corporate strategy and public-private partnerships. The lessons could be far-reaching in an era of increased global outsourcing of U.S. manufacturing jobs. The project translates to a Texas windfall; the Richardson plant will possess an annual payroll of high-wage salaries topping $45 million. The Perryman Group in Waco, Texas conducted an economic impact study indicating a cumulative $14.5 billion stimulus for Texas and the creation of 88,125 permanent jobs.
More importantly, the study notes, the project positions Texas to become a world leader in such fields as nanotechnology and advanced materials. In short, the TI 300 millimeter wafer plant represents an outstanding mechanism to locate an important manufacturing enterprise in a dynamic region of Texas while supporting academic excellence in a synergistic manner. The study concludes, It is a catalyst to future business expansion and job creation that is critical to the long-term outlook for the state.
That article is dated 2004, projecting for 2005. Are times better or worse now?
I'm not sure that Houston's economy is currently 60 percent energy dependent. I thought it was more diversified over the years than that. But dont worry, if the energy state of the U.S. continues to go the direction it has, I'm sure the opportunistic nature of Texas will ganrantee that Houston will end up with a highly energy-centric economy once again. Glory will be had, followed by crash and burn. Opportunists are weak organisms, and Houston will be unable to resist the temptations, even if it means becoming dependent on oil again.
Edit: Just found a source that puts the energy dependency at 40%. So, not quite dependent...yet.
Last edited by 2112; 26 February 2007 at 08:52 PM.
I'd be surprised if DFW is 40% dependent on any industry. That is a pretty high number and I don't know how that's considered broad based.
I'll give you an industry that *might* approach 40%: real estate. residential + commercial + industrial; construction, financing, maintanance, home improvement etc....Originally Posted by rantanamo
And Houston has one other thing that keeps it's baseline more stabel than DFW, the port of Houston. Whiel ti may not account for a large percentage of dolalrs or employed, the fact there is a large, stable, blue collar place of employment keeps a critical mass of people stable.... and that can count for a lot.
The World will end not with a "bang" but with a "d'oh!"
Source(s)?Originally Posted by ajmstilt
A wise man speaks because he has something to say; a fool because he has to say something. - Plato
Compared to when Houston was 80%, that's pretty broad!! That means 60% percent of the economomy has nothing to do with oil. Heck, you wouldnt want to be to distributed, then growth would be mediocre, following the darn wall street indexes. It would be boring. Id rather have the boom and occasional crash just to keep things interesting!Originally Posted by rantanamo
Not true! TI does not throw money around needlessly. The wafer fab will open when the market for semiconductors surpasses available world wide capacity to build semiconductors and there is a need for TI to have additional wafer fabrication capacity.Originally Posted by Tnekster
Not completely true! Yes manufacturing process levels are driving down costs to manufacture semiconductors but that technology is available to everyone in the industry world wide and the cost of that technology is not any cheaper in Asia than it is here. Semiconductor companies like AMD, TI and Intel are using overseas Foundries for extra manufacturing capacity and that allows them to not to have to idle their own factories when demand softens. Ownership of your own wafer fabs also mean that you do not have to compete with any other company for capacity to build your product either when demand heats up.Originally Posted by Tnekster
If you look through the census figures, online at:Originally Posted by Mballar
, then you notice that Dallas and Houston were neck and neck at the turn of the century. 1915 was the Houston Ship Channel's first year, and in the twenties Houston went from 138,000 to 292,000; Dallas, from 159,000 to 260,000. The disparity in industrial base, much less trade tonnage, has only grown in each decade since, and Houston fuels the heartland of the U.S.
Anyway, here are sources:
I for one can't keep patting myself on the back for how clever Dallas is - that is, Dallas, the one metropolis with no geographic reason to be anything, its entrepreneurial genius alone leading it above and beyond the mass of its competitors generation after generation - and then act skeptical when someone points out what we already knew. Namely, that some other city has the abiding baseline that it doesn't. That more people gained reasons to be some other place. It's a patently valid point.
Last edited by I45Tex; 28 February 2007 at 03:56 PM.
wow Awesome I45
the 2020 Truck flow map is wild!
The World will end not with a "bang" but with a "d'oh!"
Originally Posted by ajmstilt
...just so long as it's not enough to make one believe in CINTRA/ZACHRY and the Trans Texas Corridors.
People used to say the same thing about DMOS6. It was built... then sat idle for a few years. Now, no one can imagine the company without it since it's the heart of our advanced mfg.Originally Posted by PuddinHead
Energy is not just oil, though. Many are forgetting that. These energy companies are not going to go away when the oil is gone.Originally Posted by 2112
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