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Thread: DFW Population: By the Numbers

  1. #301
    High-Rise Member eirin's Avatar
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    If you go to the Wikipedia page on Dallas, someone (probably from San Diego, kidding) downgraded our population count and cited a page from a San Diego news related website for the change. Despite this, there is a more believable count down the page in the trend of population. Seeing as the count has increased every time it has been taken, I find it hard to believe that it would go from 1.3 million to 1.26 million.
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    Mega-Tall Skyscraper Member AeroD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by eirin
    If you go to the Wikipedia page on Dallas, someone (probably from San Diego, kidding) downgraded our population count and cited a page from a San Diego news related website for the change. Despite this, there is a more believable count down the page in the trend of population. Seeing as the count has increased every time it has been taken, I find it hard to believe that it would go from 1.3 million to 1.26 million.
    http://www.theatlantic.com/national/...revival/58656/
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  3. #303
    Administrator tamtagon's Avatar
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    Dallas city population will increase more than 100,000 by 2020. Hum.

  4. #304
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    Quote Originally Posted by tamtagon View Post
    Dallas city population will increase more than 100,000 by 2020. Hum.
    (1) Cool!
    (2) What's your source?
    (3) What's the ratio of births/out-of-market migration/in-market movement?

  5. #305
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    That is a guess used by many people that comes from 1,000,000 increasing in DFW, lots of high powered studies on that one, and Dallas City getting 10 per cent, essentially current share. 2 years into the decade and we are not yet seeing it in city and are seeing it in the metroplex.

  6. #306
    Sea™ CTroyMathis's Avatar
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    Here's the 2011 estimates from the USCB since we're on the topic. CSA down to County.

    Code:
    Population estimates (July 1, 2011)	2010		2011
    
    CSA (MSA + nearby Micropolitan Areas)
    Dallas-Fort Worth, TX                   6,760,635	6,887,383
    
    MSA
    Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX		6,400,511	6,526,548
    
    Metropolitan Divisions of MSA
    Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX	                4,255,890	4,345,790
    Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	        2,144,621	2,180,758
    
    Counties
    Dallas County, TX	                2,375,207	2,416,014
    Tarrant County, TX	                1,816,850	1,849,815
    Collin County, TX	                  788,511	  812,226
    Denton County, TX	                  667,138	  686,406
    Last edited by CTroyMathis; 14 April 2012 at 04:25 PM.

  7. #307
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    Quote Originally Posted by mjblazin View Post
    That is a guess used by many people that comes from 1,000,000 increasing in DFW, lots of high powered studies on that one, and Dallas City getting 10 per cent, essentially current share. 2 years into the decade and we are not yet seeing it in city and are seeing it in the metroplex.
    How is Dallas's current share "essentially" 10 per cent?
    DFW Metropolitan area population (2010): 6.37 Million.
    Dallas city population (2010): 1.2 Million

    Dallas's current share: 18.8 percent.

    Also, the DFW metropolitan area is expected to grow by well more than just 1 Million people from 2010 to 2020. Look at the census estimates for the first year of the decade (posted above by CTroyMathis). Those numbers will lead to a total growth by 2020 of easily 1.25 Million. IF Dallas were to enjoy its current share, that would lead to growth of Dallas's city population of
    over 200,000.

    Now for the reality check. As you suggested in your last sentence, there is really no reason to expect the city of Dallas to have 10% of the metropolitan area's population growth, let alone 18.8 percent. For that matter, there is no reason to expect the city of Dallas to have 8% of the metro growth (the share necessary to roughly attain a 100,000 growth by 2020. Keep in mind, Dallas' city population grew by only 9236 from 2000 to 2010, less than 1% of the total metro growth.

  8. #308
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    Quote Originally Posted by tamtagon View Post
    Dallas city population will increase more than 100,000 by 2020. Hum.
    ^^^^^^^
    According to the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) March 2012 population estimates for the DFW area, the City of Dallas is actually doing quite well for itself population-wise in the new decade. Here is the summary from their March 2012 report:

    City of Dallas
    April 1, 2010 census = 1,197,816
    January 1, 2011 revised estimate = 1,205,490
    January 1, 2012 estimate = 1,207,420

    Population growth in City of Dallas since last census = 9,604



    City of Ft. Worth
    April 1, 2010 census = 741,206
    January 1, 2011 revised estimate = 748,450
    January 1, 2012 estimate = 757,810

    Population growth in City of Ft. Worth since last census = 16,604



    City of Arlington
    April 1, 2010 census = 365,438
    January 1, 2011 revised estimate = 365,530
    January 1, 2012 estimate = 365,860

    Population growth in Arlington since last census = 422



    For the 12 County DFW MPA:
    April 1, 2000 census = 5,197,317
    April 1, 2010 census = 6,417,724
    January 1, 2011 NCTCOG estimate = 6,461,120
    January 1, 2012 NCTCOG estimate = 6,515,710

    DFW MPA population growth since 2010 census = 97,986


    With these latest NCTCOG population estimates as of January 1, 2012, mjblazin's statement that the City of Dallas captures about 10% of the regions growth is basically right on the money!

    The real laggard in population growth in the new decade appears to be Arlington.

    In total contrast, Dallas has started the new decade with a blast considering it has grown from April 1, 2010 to January 1, 2012 by several hundred more people than it had grown the entire previous decade!

    And with all of the significant residential projects that have been started and that are in the pipeline to be started within the City Limits of Dallas, the strong population growth should continue for Dallas. That is why announcements like Billingsley's residential project at North Lake with up to 10,000 residential units (all within the City Limits of Dallas) are incredible for the City as that project could add up to 15,000-20,000 people to the City's population in this decade alone. And the multi-family developments occurring in Downtown Dallas and the Central Dallas corridor in general are significant to say the least.

    Full report here: http://www.nctcog.org/ris/demographi...pEstimates.pdf

    Note 1: you have to be careful how you initially read the report because it is focusing on the changes only from 2011 to 2012. You have to go down to the more detailed reports under "2012 Population Estimates By County, City" to see the actual numbers by county and city to include actual census 2010 data along with the estimates as of Jan. 1 for 2011 and 2012.

    Note 2: the NCTCOG uses a definition of "MPA" instead of "MSA". What the exact difference is I have not researched because the DFW MSA's actual 2010 census population was 6,371,773 versus the number they show. Their MPA I believe is made up of the same 12 counties as is the MSA.
    Last edited by Dallas Soars; 14 April 2012 at 10:45 PM.

  9. #309
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dallas Soars View Post
    ^^^^^^^
    According to the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) March 2012 population estimates for the DFW area, the City of Dallas is actually doing quite well for itself population-wise in the new decade. Here is the summary from their March 2012 report:

    City of Dallas
    April 1, 2010 census = 1,197,816
    January 1, 2011 revised estimate = 1,205,490
    January 1, 2012 estimate = 1,207,420

    Population growth in City of Dallas since last census = 9,604



    City of Ft. Worth
    April 1, 2010 census = 741,206
    January 1, 2011 revised estimate = 748,450
    January 1, 2012 estimate = 757,810

    Population growth in City of Ft. Worth since last census = 16,604



    City of Arlington
    April 1, 2010 census = 365,438
    January 1, 2011 revised estimate = 365,530
    January 1, 2012 estimate = 365,860

    Population growth in Arlington since last census = 422



    For the 12 County DFW MPA:
    April 1, 2000 census = 5,197,317
    April 1, 2010 census = 6,417,724
    January 1, 2011 NCTCOG estimate = 6,461,120
    January 1, 2012 NCTCOG estimate = 6,515,710

    DFW MPA population growth since 2010 census = 97,986


    With these latest NCTCOG population estimates as of January 1, 2012, mjblazin's statement that the City of Dallas captures about 10% of the regions growth is basically right on the money!

    The real laggard in population growth in the new decade appears to be Arlington.

    In total contrast, Dallas has started the new decade with a blast considering it has grown from April 1, 2010 to January 1, 2012 by several hundred more people than it had grown the entire previous decade!

    And with all of the significant residential projects that have been started and that are in the pipeline to be started within the City Limits of Dallas, the strong population growth should continue for Dallas. That is why announcements like Billingsley's residential project at North Lake with up to 10,000 residential units (all within the City Limits of Dallas) are incredible for the City as that project could add up to 15,000-20,000 people to the City's population in this decade alone. And the multi-family developments occurring in Downtown Dallas and the Central Dallas corridor in general are significant to say the least.

    Full report here: http://www.nctcog.org/ris/demographi...pEstimates.pdf

    Note 1: you have to be careful how you initially read the report because it is focusing on the changes only from 2011 to 2012. You have to go down to the more detailed reports under "2012 Population Estimates By County, City" to see the actual numbers by county and city to include actual census 2010 data along with the estimates as of Jan. 1 for 2011 and 2012.

    Note 2: the NCTCOG uses a definition of "MPA" instead of "MSA". What the exact difference is I have not researched because the DFW MSA's actual 2010 census population was 6,371,773 versus the number they show. Their MPA I believe is made up of the same 12 counties as is the MSA.
    Interesting. Thanks for posting.

    A few thoughts:

    The NCTCOG estimates use a different methodology than than either the census estimates or the Census. They are interesting, but don't generally have much reliabilty, at least in the past. It will be interesting to see the Census city estimates for 2011 when they are released in May.

    NCTCOG's estimate for metropolitan population is almost certainly too low. Total metro population of only 97,986 for the 21 months from April 1, 2010 to Jan. 1 2012??? That would be the slowest metro growth in many many years! The recently released Census estimates show total metro growth of 155,000 + in just the 15 months from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2011! I realize we are talking about slightly different sets of counties. But it is virtually impossible that the addition of Hood County and the deletion of Delta County would make that much difference.

    So the idea of Dallas having 10% of the metro's growth is still suspect, to say the least. Also, note that the study focuses on the 2011-2012 growth. In that period, Dallas County only has 10% of the region's growth. Dallas (city) is shown to have grown by 2,000 during that year, 35% of Dallas County's growth, so 3.5% of the metro's growth. (There is something odd here. According to these numbers, Dallas had a growth spurt of 7,670 in the 9 months from April 1, 2010 to Jan 1, 2011 and then only grew by 1,930 during the 12 months of 2011???) One wonders why NCTCOG wastes the effort and taxpayer money coming up with these numbers.

    The "MPA" includes Hood County, which is not part of the MSA and the MPA does not include Delta County, which is in the MSA.
    Last edited by Tucy; 15 April 2012 at 06:24 PM.

  10. #310
    The way it go Rangers100's Avatar
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    Population growth means little. It's density that makes cities cool, creative, vibrant.

    The region would be far better with a couple million people living in tight density than it is with this 6+ million sprawled out mess that is much of the area.
    "Some cities make you lose your head / In this suburb stretched out thin and dead"

  11. #311
    Mile-High Skyscraper Member rantanamo's Avatar
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    Dallas won't grow at a decent rate again until the mass teardowns are replaced or stop. I don't think we are anywhere near that point.

  12. #312
    The way it go Rangers100's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rantanamo
    Dallas won't grow at a decent rate again until the mass teardowns are replaced or stop. I don't think we are anywhere near that point.
    Or until it quits building/widening highways to suck from the city and fuel the sprawl.

    A 2006 Brown University study found that each highway running through city centers reduces city populations by 18%. The reasons for this are obvious.

    Want to grow Dallas population again? Cut the sprawl cords:

    http://www.facebook.com/SaveDowntownDallas
    "Some cities make you lose your head / In this suburb stretched out thin and dead"

  13. #313
    Mile-High Skyscraper Member rantanamo's Avatar
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    that's not going to cure anything. Hasn't stopped Houston or SA from growing. Plenty of other things to solve before people want Dallas. Just saying, you're going to lose population when you tear down massive population areas and replace them with nothing at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rantanamo View Post
    that's not going to cure anything. Hasn't stopped Houston or SA from growing. Plenty of other things to solve before people want Dallas. Just saying, you're going to lose population when you tear down massive population areas and replace them with nothing at all.
    I agree. When you tear down single family homes and apartments that cater to families and replace them with fancy apartments that cater to single trendoids you are going to continue to lose population. Not saying that there is anything wrong with that, but I cannot see Dallas gaining much population due to we are boxed in by suburbs and unless we start building up we are not going to grow.

  15. #315
    Super Moderator lakewoodhobo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbarn
    I cannot see Dallas gaining much population due to we are boxed in by suburbs and unless we start building up we are not going to grow.
    Yes but Dallas needs more State-Thomases, not more Museum Towers. Population-wise we are nowhere near needing to build up because I see quite a few moonscapes from downtown Dallas to LBJ.

  16. #316
    The way it go Rangers100's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakewoodhobo

    Yes but Dallas needs more State-Thomases, not more Museum Towers. Population-wise we are nowhere near needing to build up because I see quite a few moonscapes from downtown Dallas to LBJ.
    Curses upon you for speaking ill of the Museum Tower, our holy shrine of eye candy for morning-evening commutes into and back out of the city.
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  17. #317
    Mega-Tall Skyscraper Member AeroD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rantanamo View Post
    Hasn't stopped Houston or SA from growing.
    That's in large part due to the fact there is nothing to stop them from expanding their borders. San Antonio's growth has been on its edges not core, where as in Dallas, the growth has been in the core not edges.
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  18. #318
    Supertall Skyscraper Member NThomas's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbarn View Post
    I agree. When you tear down single family homes and apartments that cater to families and replace them with fancy apartments that cater to single trendoids you are going to continue to lose population. Not saying that there is anything wrong with that, but I cannot see Dallas gaining much population due to we are boxed in by suburbs and unless we start building up we are not going to grow.
    Tearing down single family homes to build up only leaves you with apartments with the present economy. When the demand for home ownership rises, building owners will begin the conversion from rental to condo. Bringing in more families will always be dependent on the school district, and until DISD can right the ship, the 'burbs will continue to monopolize that demographic.

  19. #319
    The way it go Rangers100's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbarn

    I agree. When you tear down single family homes and apartments that cater to families and replace them with fancy apartments that cater to single trendoids you are going to continue to lose population. Not saying that there is anything wrong with that, but I cannot see Dallas gaining much population due to we are boxed in by suburbs and unless we start building up we are not going to grow.
    The best report I've seen on the topic shows each urban highway running through a city core causes a city population loss of 18% (on average).

    Dallas not only has several such highways, it is talking about building another (the Trinity tollroad).

    Want to grow the population of Dallas? This would be a great start:

    http://www.facebook.com/SaveDowntownDallas

    Single family homes, apartments, whatever. None of it matters if you have giant needles stuck right into the heart of the core, sucking everything out to the sprawl. Lots of other cities have realized this and are tearing out urban highways. Dallas is going in the other direction.
    Last edited by Rangers100; 22 April 2012 at 08:04 PM.
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  20. #320
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    Dallas area leads nation in population growth, adding one person every 4 minutes
    The Business Journals by G. Scott Thomas
    Monday, May 28, 2012


    The Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area adds another person every four minutes and 10 seconds, making it the fastest-growing metropolitan area in America.

    Dallas-Fort Worth gained 126,037 residents between July 1, 2010, and the same date last year, according to newly released population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau .

    On Numbers used those estimates to generate daily growth rates for the nation's 366 metros. Dallas-Fort Worth leads the nation with an increase of 345.3 persons per day, or one person every four minutes and 10 seconds.

    Houston ranks second with a daily population gain of 301.6 persons. Rounding out the top five are Los Angeles (up 275.2 persons per day), New York City (up 263.7) and Washington (up 259.7).

    Dallas and Houston have been economic powerhouses in recent years. Both cities led the nation in 2011 in private-sector job growth. Dallas, in particular, has seen a rebound in jobs in the financial services industry.

    Fifteen metropolitan areas added at least 100 persons per day between mid-2010 and mid-2011. Nearly 82 percent of all metros -- 299 of 366 -- registered population increases of any size.

    The Cleveland area was the biggest loser, suffering a daily decline of 19.9 persons. Next were two Michigan markets: Detroit (down 13.4 persons per day) and Flint (down 8.3 persons).

    The following database contains the Census Bureau's latest population estimates for all 366 metro areas, along with daily growth rates calculated by On Numbers. Use the tab to isolate a single state, or simply hit the Search button to see everything at once.

    On Numbers also issues its own up-to-date population estimates several times a year. The most recent figures for states and metropolitan areas were issued at the beginning of April.



    From the Houston Business Journal article
    Other Texas markets are also growing at a fast clip. The Austin area ranks No. 9, with a total of 55,272 residents added over the year, or 151.4 people per day. San Antonio ranks No. 14, with 41,036 additional residents over the year, or 112.4 people per day.

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