Question on critical mass

[FoUTASportscaster]

Many articles have quoted that DTD's revitalization hinges on a critical mass of 10,000 residents. My question is why? Density for the rest of the city is in the low to mid 3,000 range. DTD is about 1.3 square miles, meaning that a critical mass needed is 7,000 more than the rest of the city. Why? Especially with the surge of workers during the day, I don't understand why this is the bar that set apart success from failure. Anyone with answers, comments or conjectures would be valued by me.

[drumguy8800]

I've heard 50,000. No one wants downtown to look like Far North Dallas.

And I don't think we're talking the difference between success and failure, I think we're talking the difference between "there" and "not there."

Downtown is not where we want it to be right now. At all. If there were 50,000 residents, you can bet you'd see a lot more things downtown -- of them, the most critical would be *schools, *mainstream theater(s), *restaurants, *nightclubs, *parks.

Right now there isn't enough demand in downtown for it to support itself the way we want it to. Once it reaches 50,000 people, it can survive without retail incentives and such.

[JaeTex]

I like the thought of 50k downtown but don't see it happening anytime soon or not so soon for that matter.

I have heard 10,000 as the goal as well. I assume the thought is that at that point downtown can begin to "support" itself without continual subsidy or additional encouragement.

That might be the kind of number where retailers start to reach their metrics about having enough people in a certain radius to support their stores, and businesses really start to say we need to locate there because we'll be close to our workers.

And maybe then the success will lead to more success and we'll have 50,000 people downtown complaining about it being too crowded.

[antoinekhuu]

And maybe then the success will lead to more success and we'll have 50,000 people downtown complaining about it being too crowded.
Isn't that the beauty of urban life?

[gc]

^ yup

[Insidetheloop]

That might be the kind of number where retailers start to reach their metrics about having enough people in a certain radius to support their stores, and businesses really start to say we need to locate there because we'll be close to our workers.



Correct. Many retailers will not move into an area unless the population already exists to support a retail location. If their bean counters cannot plug specific criteria into a location and crunch some numbers then the restaurant or store will not be built.

[The Great Hizzy!]

I don't think there's a magic number per se but I think it's more a goal and probably speaks to what retailers would feel comfortable with if they were trying to serve a market aside from the 9-5 weekday crowd. In other words, a traditional neighborhood. Given that those who would live downtown are probably less likely to use a car to get around, you'd like to have urban/pedestrian amenities that are available after six in the evening and so forth.

But there's no magic number critical for success that's set in stone. In Houston, for example, the goal is to reach 25,000 residents by 2025, with half of those being achieved by 2012. There's no real reason why that number was selected other than it seems like a nice goal to reach.

Basically, what planners are looking at his doubling the population every ten years or so. Assuming DT Dallas' current population was about 4,500 residents in 2000, you're looking at roughly doubling that by 2010.

[Lakewooder]

Retailers should realize that not only downtown residents will patronize a unique establishment. Thousands more live in close proximity and will travel to a desirable business (as they did up until the 1970s). With our rail system and its future expansion, they can count on even more...

[jdwillis]

Retailers should realize that not only downtown residents will patronize a unique establishment.


I'll vouch for that. As you may know by now, we live in Garland. As has been pointed out more than once, Garland lacks a few things!:~) One of those things being a real, high quality grocery store.

Everyone here knows the places I mean: Central Market, etc. We have two choices if we want to patronize such an establishment; go about five or six miles to Lover's and Greenville or go eight or ten miles to Plano. The Whole Foods that used to be at Kingsley and Skillman is no more, so that option is out, besides, at that store you couldn't buy a bottle of wine to go with the groceries for the good meal you just bought to create that evening.

People will go out of their way to go to good establishements. It does not matter if it is a night club, movie theater, shopping center, grocery store, or museum-people will seek out high quality establishments. Us? We avoid Wal-Mart, if that is any clue.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't the promoters of downtown changed their story over the years? Having a thriving central business district used to be sufficient, especially when thousands upon thousands of people went to work the every day and they had the purchasing power to support department stores and all manner of other places eager to accept their money in exchange for goods and services. Now, since downtown obviously cannot attract those kinds of employers any longer, they have changed and now want to turn it into a high density residential district. I suppose that is fine, but it presupposes (from an urban design point-of-view) those people will want to work where they live...

Wouldn't it be interesting if downtown achieves 50,000 residents. I can imagine a bedroom community in downtown Dallas where the overall population shrinks during the day because all those people now work in Frisco!:~)

Just food for thought.

[Aporkalypse]

We have to make downtown more pedestrian-friendly. It's amazing to see the difference in downtown Fort Worth at 8PM or 10 PM and Dallas at the same time.

[trolleygirl]

There are 50,000 people in the three mile diameter of Vickery Meadow. If we want that type of density in DTD, then we have to be creative in how we package and market it.

Who is our target market? Young graduates? Upwardly mobile thirty-somethings? Empty-nesters? Families? All of the above? People will seek out housing that suits them and their lifestyles. I'd love to live in a downtown loft, but I can't afford to pay $2,000 a month in rent and I have too much stuff to pack into a 800 sq/ft apartment. That's why I bought a house in an affordable, close-in neighborhood. Plus I have some great trees.

Not everyone who earns six-figures wants to rent an apartment. We need more middle-class professionals. We need to incentivise some apartment buiders with some sort of tax break (yes, a tax break) in order for them to offer quality housing at below market rate for police officers, fire officers, teachers, city employees, etc.

We're not going to build that density with only wealthy people or only upwardly mobile people or with families. It's not gonna happen.

[FoUTASportscaster]

I thought you said you were moving to DTD?

[trolleygirl]

I thought you said you were moving to DTD?

Who me? I never said I was moving to DTD. I said I would like to live in a loft in DTD but I have no plans of selling my house and moving there.

[warlock55]

I thought you said you were moving to DTD?

That's trolleygirl2.

Kudos to trolleygirl(1)'s last post. Residential diversity = residential stability. We can't count on just one income class to revitalize downtown and then stay forever. Trends and lifestyles change, so downtown needs to offer a lot of options.

[FoUTASportscaster]

Oh whoops. Just wanna be jealous of the right Trolleygirl's living situation.

DTD already has a good mix, I think. Uptown is the one with most of the high end residential areas. DTD, while not cheap, is at least a little better than uptown.

[Aporkalypse]

There are 50,000 people in the three mile diameter of Vickery Meadow. If we want that type of density in DTD, then we have to be creative in how we package and market it.

Who is our target market? Young graduates? Upwardly mobile thirty-somethings? Empty-nesters? Families? All of the above? People will seek out housing that suits them and their lifestyles. I'd love to live in a downtown loft, but I can't afford to pay $2,000 a month in rent and I have too much stuff to pack into a 800 sq/ft apartment. That's why I bought a house in an affordable, close-in neighborhood. Plus I have some great trees.

Not everyone who earns six-figures wants to rent an apartment. We need more middle-class professionals. We need to incentivise some apartment buiders with some sort of tax break (yes, a tax break) in order for them to offer quality housing at below market rate for police officers, fire officers, teachers, city employees, etc.

We're not going to build that density with only wealthy people or only upwardly mobile people or with families. It's not gonna happen.


In a metro of 5.5 million, I can easily see 50k people in the young professional pre-family demographic that want to live in a high-density urban area where they can walk to do 90% of what they need to. DART access makes this even easier.

The problem now is there aren't enough amenities downtown to attract them all. On the other hand, to get these amenities you need residential density. I can be a bit of a catch 22 but progress is certainly being made as residential dev't is occurring.

One big problem I see is that compared to a lot of other very large cities there aren't as many jobs downtown or near downtown. The corporate presence is so much stronger in the suburbs that downtown living here would only be a commuting convenience to the bankers, lawyers, accountants, etc actually working downtown.

[RuggerAl]

So how does the City of Dallas attract more corporate business back to the Core? It would take only 1 or 2. they need a plan, like how Plano developed Legacy business park. Idea is you don't have all that land, but you have a larger pool of people to work from IMO- more city area to pull from. city needs to take a look at what corps are looking for and start to chase them, but not sell out to them is key.