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View Full Version : HOLY COW! Real Estate is Crazy!!!



dallastophoenix
22 April 2005, 07:09 PM
Okay, I'm a fairly new homeowner out here in a suburb of Phoenix, and I've NEVER experienced anything like this before... Is this happening at all in Dallas??:

I had 2 different people this week knock on my door to inquire if I'd be interested in selling my home (I have no "for sale" sign up, by the way). After I let them know that I wasn't planning to sell for quite some time, they proceeeded to give me their contact info, as well as state that I could name the price if I changed my mind... I also had a handful of people over the last two months contact me about purchasing my three other rental properties (much lower valued), which have been 100% leased since I bought them two years ago. NO WAY will I sell!

What's this about?! I mean, I live in a modest neighborhood - every third home is the same, etc... nothing special at all! And those rental properties closer to the central city cater to a much lower income level, but still have so much demand...

I've noticed that a few homes in the neighborhood I live have had signs put up for a day, maybe two, then taken down (SOLD) - so I asked a recently moved-in neighbor what was going on w/ these random people asking us to sell. He stated that his family was 1 of 13 that attempted to outbid each other to get into the house next door (which sold in less than a day). He went on to tell me that the only way he got the house was through a real estate lady's hook-up (didn't understand that - and didn't ask, but anyway...).

I knew something crazy was going on, since I just refinanced my mortgage - and had it appraised a couple of weeks ago. Apparently my home's value has shot up over $100K in a little over a year (+40%). So, after learning about this - and what was going on w/ my neighbor and the random "buyers", I contacted a realtor yesterday (friend of a friend) to enlighten me about what's going on. She said that it is such a sellers market EVERWHERE in Phoenix right now. With over 150K people moving in each year, and the overpriced California and now Nevada markets making people (many, investors) look elsewhere, Phoenix is the place to buy a home right now...

So I asked about my HUGE leap in appraised value. She said that if I chose to sell, I could get close to double (yes, almost double!!) that appraised leap in value. In fact, she said that people buying homes are not even looking at the houses in person - or even having inspections done. They're bidding on homes "as-is" - hoping to outbid the next person - asking WAY over the sky-rocketing appraised values.

My question to her then was "where are the high-paying jobs in Phoenix coming from to compensate for these incredibly-high homes prices?" "They're not here, " she said. Apparently, they're mostly investors, or people from CA, NY, or NV that have sold their homes for crazy prices there, and see the home prices in Phx (as high as they are) as a bargain (most pay cash, she said).

Another problem associated w/ such a high demand is that almost all of the hundreds of master-planned communities sprouting up all over the outskirts of the metro are filling up too fast w/ interested buyers. People are flocking to these homes to be able to attempt to afford a new home, but are dealing long lines of people camping out in order to be the first lucky few to get into the lotto drawings to meet w/ builders (a few of my friends are so tired of dealing w/ this to buy an "affordable" home). Even then, the home builders are only releasing a few dozen homes at a time in order to drive up the home prices... Some politicians are even attempting to pass some sort of legislation (would never work) to hinder out-of-state investors from buying up all of these homes in order to rent awhile and then sell to make a profit.

I just thought that I'd share this with everyone in Dallas, since a booming house market typically "appears" to be a really good thing. Here in Phoenix it's great if you're selling, but horrible if you're a regular person trying to buy...

Lakewooder
22 April 2005, 07:20 PM
You have the "California Cash-out" conundrum crescendo...

This will be great if CA boom continues, but then it may crash or at least level off dramatically. There are signs of that, also Vegas has cooled and some prices have fallen.

So, if you want to leave -- spring RE market coinciding with CA out-migration, it is an excellent time to sell.

I've been getting calls from builders on all my East Dallas properties. Some won't give up. I have also received unsolicited offers via the mail, since I won't call any of them back. My personal opinion is that East Dallas will continue to boom, perhaps even more in the next cycle after all the projects we are discussing are actually finished.

Texas RE prices have basically been stagnant the last few years except for the inner-city/urban chic areas. I mean you can get a basic suburb tract home for 150K when the same thing will cost 500-600K in Orange County and 400k in the Inland Empire of CA.

I expect that no matter what happens on the coasts, Texas will eventually catch-up somewhat as it appears to be more and more of a bargain.

A lot of people in Cali are mortgaged to the hilt and use their homes as ATMs with each new appraisal. But if you had purchased something for 150K which is now worth 600-800K and you don't have to stay in CA, wouldn't you cash out and head for cheaper climes? Same thing goes for corporations.

So, I think our future here is bright -- no bubble to burst.

You might check out the posting boards on MSN Your Money, this is discussed incessantly there.

Lakewooder
22 April 2005, 07:32 PM
I forgot to mention the investors -- many CA people are cowed to imagine that the rest of the country is going to catch up with them, so they are pawning everything they own to buy rentals in other parts of the country.

Apparently there is quite a seminar business where they are herded into hotel meeting rooms and presented with 'opportunities' all over the 'fly-over' territory. Maybe they are just being led to slaughter.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out...

I've seen RE fever before, and if you even visit CA for a length of time, it's easy to catch it.

Lakewooder
27 April 2005, 09:13 PM
Here's an example of the promotional materials and seminars circulating in California:

Phoenix/Tucson, AZ Agents Coming Out - Attend our Special Reception & Presentation!!
Our Phoenix, AZ Team will also be at all the Club Meetings between April 25th - May 5th
Thomas Caldwell and Brett Brewer will be presenting some excellent opportunities on newer homes in the Phoenix metro area. Phoenix is an excellent place to purchase an investment home. Phoenix is the #1 Place in the country where people are relocating to. The population growth here has been phenomenal and promises to continue as families are now being priced out of California and Nevada. According to the GPEC, the Greater Phoenix population is projected to grow at more than twice the national rate for the next couple of decades. Greater Phoenix was ranked "Best Place to Start and Grow a Business" among U.S. metro areas. Greater Phoenix is projected to be the 2nd largest “job engine” in the U.S. through 2025, according to Newsweek Magazine. Appreciation here last year was around 11% and on the rise! We have newer homes here (<5 years old) that can close in 30 days! Homes are 3bed/2bath or 4bed/2bath, 2-car garage, 1150-1800 SQFT and range from $170K-$225K. We also have multi-family units on occasion.
Tom & Brett will be presenting at the following Events:
Thursday April 28th, Temecula Club Meeting, 6:30PM (No reservation required)
Monday May 2nd, Pasadena Club Meeting, 6:30PM (No reservation required)
Tuesday May 3rd, Culver City/W.LA Club Meeting 6:30PM (No reservation required)
Wednesday May 4th, Special Reception 6-9:30PM -Irvine, CA MUST RSVP!
Thursday May 5th, Corona/Riverside Club Meeting 6:30PM (No reservation required)

If you would like to RSVP for the Special Reception on Wednesday May 4th, Please call Amy Larson (949) 885-8141 or email her at: amylarson@marshallreddickseminars.com <mailto:amylarson@marshallreddickseminars.com>. For Pre-Event sales and information about this Fabulous Location to Invest, please call the Brewer Caldwell Team at: (480) 471-5187 and ask for someone in the sales department.

dallastophoenix
28 April 2005, 05:51 AM
^ very interesting material!

Columbus Civil
28 April 2005, 09:34 AM
d2p, are you going to sell anytime soon? I don't know much at all about real estate, but this seems like the perfect time to sell.

Tnekster
28 April 2005, 12:25 PM
My parents bought a home south of Tucson in a little town called Green Valley. They are experiencing some of that down there. The number of homes available for sale has dropped from over 500 to under 100 in one year. They are building as much new product as they can but the home values are just going nuts.

bshiker
28 April 2005, 12:49 PM
You want to talk nuts. My house (1,800 sq ft) in Arlington, VA has appreciated somewhere between 85-90% in a little over three years. We would like a little more space, but cant afford to move up to the next size house (app. 2,800 sq ft), because that house would be at least $1,200,000 (and not particularly nice).

Tnekster
28 April 2005, 01:13 PM
Wow! That is really crazy. You should move to Texas. I build my 3-2-2 near a new elementary, state park, lake, on a green belt and creek for 98,000. You can't do that today but it is nothing like you describe.

Texan#1
28 April 2005, 01:35 PM
Tnekster, where exactly do you live? It sounds very nice.

Tnekster
28 April 2005, 01:59 PM
I live in the Mountain Creek area of SW Dallas. South of I-20, it is considered the hill country of Dallas county. I am located near Joe Pool lake, Cedar Hill State Park, the Dallas County Nature Preserve and the Cedar Ridge Preserve. The Mountain Creek area sits just below the escarpment that runs through Cedar Hill and up into Oak Cliff. Most of the area around me is dedicated to parkland so I doubt they will ever over-develop the region.

Texan#1
28 April 2005, 02:09 PM
Wow I know the area you're talking about and I like it a lot. I've been to the Cedar Hill State Park and I was impressed with how it felt like I was in some other place and not a city. I'm going to tell my parents and other family to look into the area as we have many from New York and California moving here.

tamtagon
28 April 2005, 03:09 PM
crash, boom, bang --- ride the bus

Tnekster
28 April 2005, 06:07 PM
Wow I know the area you're talking about and I like it a lot. I've been to the Cedar Hill State Park and I was impressed with how it felt like I was in some other place and not a city. I'm going to tell my parents and other family to look into the area as we have many from New York and California moving here.

Let me know if I can direct anyone. It really depends on what they are looking for. The prime lots are in Lakeridge in Cedar Hill but they whole area is buzzing with some cool developments. Plus it's still close to the city.

tamtagon
28 April 2005, 06:49 PM
I live in the Mountain Creek area of SW Dallas. South of I-20, it is considered the hill country of Dallas county. I am located near Joe Pool lake, Cedar Hill State Park, the Dallas County Nature Preserve and the Cedar Ridge Preserve. The Mountain Creek area sits just below the escarpment that runs through Cedar Hill and up into Oak Cliff. Most of the area around me is dedicated to parkland so I doubt they will ever over-develop the region.

Sounds like a great place to build a nice house.

dallastophoenix
29 April 2005, 04:55 AM
^ absolutely LOVE the Lake Ridge area. had friends living there 15 or so years ago when it was somewhat new...

cc: i don't plan on selling yet. according to things i've read and heard, phx is nowhere near the peak of it's price climb. vegas is atarting to taper off a bit, but they had 5-8 years of incredible growth b4 peaking. i should be safe for awhile here to hold on and let the house appreciate even more.

bshiker: i totally understand the crzy home prices out there... i lived in nearby va beach for a couple of years, and drove to dc each weekend to visit friends living there. many have sold their homes for out-of-this-world prices and moved to either va beach or richmond. one of my friends was able to sell their suburban northern va home for such a high price (and make so much of a profit) that they moved to va beach and bought a beach front home - and still had a few hundred thousand left over... unbelievable!!

the dc area boom is staggering..