Projection: Hispanic Majority In Texas On Track By 2020

[psukhu]

http://www.nbc5i.com/news/3447282/detail.html

Projection: Hispanic Majority In Texas On Track By 2020
Austin To Pass S.A. In Population

POSTED: 1:57 pm EDT June 22, 2004
UPDATED: 2:00 pm EDT June 22, 2004
HOUSTON -- Hispanics are still on pace to outnumber whites in Texas by 2020 and they may even do it sooner, according to new state population estimates.

The Texas State Data Center's biennial population projection, released this week, is based on figures that show Hispanic growth continued in the financially troubled early 2000s while all other groups held steady.

Hispanic growth was more rapid from 2000 to 2002 because fewer people were coming to Texas while the economy was down, but the Hispanic birth rate in the state was much higher than that of other groups, said Texas state demographer Steve Murdock.

"It accelerates the diversity of the population, where we become less than half Anglo," he said.

The traditional projection has non-Hispanic whites becoming less than half the populace next year, Hispanics edging past non-Hispanic whites in 2020 and Hispanics becoming a majority by 2035. If trends continue as they did from 2000 to 2002, non-Hispanic whites could lose the majority by this year. Hispanics could become the largest group by 2015 and a majority by 2030.

The Texas State Data Center, at the University of Texas at San Antonio, is the state's official demographer. The center puts out a population projection for the state every two years, making estimations based on different growth scenarios.

All scenarios have the non-Hispanic white and black populations staying virtually flat while Hispanics mount huge gains along with "other," which comprises Asians, American Indians and any other group that doesn't fit into the three largest categories.

In fact, "other" will rival the black population by 2040 if growth were to continue as it has in the first part of this decade, Murdock said.

The trends are not expected to hold in the state's largest urban areas. Non-Hispanic whites will probably continue to outnumber Hispanics through 2040 in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and Hispanics aren't on schedule to overtake whites in greater Houston until around 2035.

In terms of overall population, planners in the San Antonio region should anticipate the Austin area passing them in population as both approach 2 million around 2020, the data center's projections show.

Copyright 2004 by The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

[gc]

whoa

[JaeTex]

whoa

Yo creo que quieres decir "ay caramba"

[Pardon my spanish, I probably just said something like "the combat boots of your mothers lovely look on that donkey", but so what]

[Foucault]

Why do these people think having a Mexican majority makes Texas a more diverse state?

[rantanamo]

^More populations with a higher percentage. If the growth continued, then it would no longer be divers. This would lead to many changes politically and culturally to create more than the current current cultural balance. Even if whites are a minority, they still have the 'power' and influence in the society, so it would take more influence from other cultures to really offset that.

[freewaytincan]

Why do these people think having a Mexican majority makes Texas a more diverse state?

I was thinking the same thing. It will be less diverse, because there will be a clear majority of Hispanics. At that point, adding more Whites and Blacks would diversify it. Frankly, I don't care, though I'll still only speak Spanish outside the country.

[drumguy8800]

that's kind of odd. whites as a minority.. will we be the first state?

[freewaytincan]

that's kind of odd. whites as a minority.. will we be the first state?

Hasn't it already happened in California?

[Lakewooder]

The other day I thought I heard Sen. McCain testifying that over 600,000 had crossed the Mexican border into Arizona in the LAST 3 MONTHS.

If this keeps up, what will happen when there are more Mexican citizens than American citizens in a town or a state?

[rantanamo]

probably already true in some towns. No way to count if they don't want to be counted.

[F4shionablecHa0s]

Maybe then it will be acceptable for white people to have White Entertainment Television, a magazine called Ivory, or a culture of their own without it being instantly shot down as racist.

Whites as a minority raises a hell of a lot of questions and rejustifications on what is acceptable.

[Columbus Civil]

Mexicans: Great food, crappy music

[tamtagon]

In terms of overall population, planners in the San Antonio region should anticipate the Austin area passing them in population as both approach 2 million around 2020, the data center's projections show.

I think Austin and San Antonio metro areas will both surpass 2 million before 2020. 2003 estimates put San Antonio at 1.8 million and Austin at 1.3 million.

[js]

I got to say something it's my favorite subject....

Hispanic does not equal Mexican!

Mexican is a nationality not a race. I always get a kick out of the words white non-Hispanic.
Mexico is much like the USA it started with immigrants from all over Europe, mainly Spain.

Hispanics can be white, black, brown or whatever color you want and some can even be Mexicans too.

You guys need to get rid of the stereotype of all Mexicans being brown Indian looking mofos.

The USA automatically increased the number of Hispanics when they annexed Puerto Rico.


Defenitions:
Hispanic: http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=hispanic
Latino: http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=latino
Mexican: http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=mexican

[F4shionablecHa0s]

Wait, something I just caught.

If Austin is going to surpass San Antonio, and San Antonio has already surpassed Dallas....Dallas is going to be the FOURTH largest city in Texas? I know, I know metro size is more important, but come on. You can't say that doesn't hurt your pride a little.

What are the projections for Dallas? Will we ever reclaim the #2 spot? Or at least cling on to #3?

[rantanamo]

Maybe then it will be acceptable for white people to have White Entertainment Television, a magazine called Ivory, or a culture of their own without it being instantly shot down as racist.

Whites as a minority raises a hell of a lot of questions and rejustifications on what is acceptable.

WET = NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox and most of the cable channels. That's whether there is a white minority or majority. Until power becomes a more diverse persuasion, then this is the reality no matter the population. White as a minority changes nothing, only numbers.

And I think you are confusing yourself with the population things.

DFW should be in the 7 or 8 millions by then. We are already close to 6 million. Have no idea how SA and Austin proper will grow. Austin proper actually stopped growing by last census. SA annexed lots of land before last census, so who knows.

[bloodandpopcorn]

We do need a greater influx of african american and asian americans into the area. It's great that more hispanics will be here, but they had better keep on learning English. This is the largest immigration to America of an geographic group, like, ever, right? All the past big migrations have always essentially fully assimiliated into English speaking culture usually by second or third generation, and I hope that the case stays the same here. I think you'd start to see huge, possibly violent protests, from white and black current americans if spanish really became a formidable threat to English-speaking america. Great to have it as a frequent second language, but America is already too divided to have multiple national languages.

[freewaytincan]

Mexicans: Great food, crappy music

You never fail us.

[bshiker]

I belivee that Hawaii and New Mexico have already gone majority minority (that is the the miority populations combined are the majority). I also think CA is supposed to be next up. I do not believe that any state is majority hispanic. I also think the city of San Antonio is supposed to be majority hispanic already (or maybe just majority minority)

I agree that people should be careful with using Mexican and hispanic interchanably. For example, in the washington DC area, the hispanic population has been expanding very rapidly, but it is mostly El Salvadorian.

[aceplace]

I think you'd start to see huge, possibly violent protests, from white and black current americans if spanish really became a formidable threat to English-speaking america. Great to have it as a frequent second language, but America is already too divided to have multiple national languages.Interesting point, Blood.

I was in the Fiesta Market on Ross last night... somebody in our group wanted some Mexican candy... and the girl checkers ... all obviously Hispanic... were chatting with each other about boys and clothes... I know, because they were doing it in English.

[psukhu]

English is still the international language to know. I don't see that changing in this century.

[Man of Leisure]

Did anyone catch that immigration special on PBS last night?

[mikedsjr]

No i caught the Scientific Americn Frontier - The Dark side of the Universe on PBS.

[mikedsjr]

Maybe then it will be acceptable for white people to have White Entertainment Television, a magazine called Ivory, or a culture of their own without it being instantly shot down as racist.


:D.

[js]

White Entertainment!
WET

that is funny...

[tamtagon]

WET, isnt that a lubricant?

[drumguy8800]

If Austin is going to surpass San Antonio, and San Antonio has already surpassed Dallas....Dallas is going to be the FOURTH largest city in Texas? I know, I know metro size is more important, but come on. You can't say that doesn't hurt your pride a little.

San Antonio surpassed Dallas for a little while in 1992, or sometime around there, but as it currently stands, Dallas has 1,220k and San Antonio has 1,188k. Not much of a difference, but oh well. And this is talking METRO AREA. Austin's metro area will soon surpass San Antonio's metro. San Antonio's metro is a measly 1.8 mil. DFW's is 5.4 mil. It's the largest metro area in Texas, and the 9th largest in the US. Note its METRO, and not municipal.

[psukhu]

DFW's is 5.4 mil.

Actually it is 5.8 million...

http://www.nctcog.org/ris/population/index.html

[psukhu]

Wait, something I just caught.

If Austin is going to surpass San Antonio, and San Antonio has already surpassed Dallas....Dallas is going to be the FOURTH largest city in Texas?

The article is talking about MSA size. The City of Austin is less than 700k.





I know, I know metro size is more important, but come on. You can't say that doesn't hurt your pride a little.


Dallas is in the same boat as San Fran and Boston. Many of us don't live/work in the Dallas city limits anyway.




What are the projections for Dallas? Will we ever reclaim the #2 spot? Or at least cling on to #3?



Not sure. Are they saying SA will only gain 200k people by 2020? If that's the case, the City of Dallas may go back to #2 if the urban growth continues at the same pace.


I think these are last year's numbers. (source: http://www.emporis.com/)

Houston
2,009,834 in city and 5,176,061 in metro

Dallas:
1,211,467 in city and 5,784,645 in metro (Ft Worth 567,516)

San Antonio:
1,194,222 in city and 1,820,719 in metro

Austin:
671,873 in city and 1,377,633 in metro