CTroyMathis
19 August 2003, 11:57 PM
Well, the can was opened...
So here we go.
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Austin population to pop
Study predicts metro area will be home to 7.8M residents in 2050
Colin Pope
Austin Business Journal Staff
Flash back to 1950: Austin is a humble Texas town, a small city where politicians and college students converge. I-35 and other major roads have yet to be considered, and the town is an oasis for the 135,000 people who live here.
Now, flash forward to 2050: The Austin area is one of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States. It has outgrown San Antonio decades earlier, and its size and affluence rival the Boston area and eclipse the Detroit area. More than 7.8 million people now call Central Texas home.
In less than 50 years, the population of this high tech hub is projected to top 7.8 million, according to new population projections released this month by American City Business Journals Inc., the parent company of the Austin Business Journal.
The sobering projections, which mirror what others have projected in recent years, mean the Austin metro area's population in 2050 will equal the current population of Northern California's Bay Area, home to San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland.
Austin was among 729 metropolitan and micropolitan areas studied by American City Business Journals. The projection formula made the conservative assumption that areas would continue to expand or contract at roughly the same pace they have maintained since 1990.
Each area's projected growth rate was determined by averaging its 12 annualized growth rates between successive years and 2002, such as 1990-2002, 1991-2002 and 1992-2002. The formula assumed a constant rate of growth, although actual growth rates will vary.
The projection for Austin provides a staunch reality check for many of Austin's leaders, who are charged with preserving Austin for generations to come. But with an estimated population of 7.8 million in just 47 years, can Austin remain Austin?
"That's the fundamental question of our time," says Robin Rather, an Austin entrepreneur and longtime community activist.
Rather, who has helped turn several grassroots efforts into civic powerhouses, says residents and visitors have come to love Austin for its unique characteristics.
"But if the population estimates turn out to be accurate, will they still love it? That's a very, very serious question, and I don't think anyone has the answer," Rather says.
The answer, experts say, can be found only after Austin and surrounding communities come together first as a region to solve Central Texas' fundamental problems concerning water supplies and transportation.
Economists say Austin's business climate in 50 years -- or even 20 years from now -- is almost unimaginable. At the very least, it's unpredictable.
Central Texas economist Ray Perryman, founder and president of Waco-based The Perryman Group Inc., predicts Austin's future will have little to do with the tech industry that has helped Austin become a piece of the global economy.
Instead, Perryman suggests Austin will reinvent itself as the tech industry evolves and broadens. He envisions an Austin that continues to stay on top of innovative technology segments, such as the digital film industry, biotech or the growing business segment researching alternative energy sources.
But exactly what kinds of businesses will form the backbone of Austin's future economy can't be known today, says John Hockenyos, managing director of Austin-based economic research firm Texas Perspectives Inc.
It's very unlikely that we'll have the same business climate in 20 years," Hockenyos says. "In 20 years, Austin may sort of feel the same but it will look different, just as it looked different 20 years ago.
"We can only hope to preserve what underlines Austin's business climate -- the spirit of tolerance, creativity and that entrepreneurial spirit that keeps us on top of innovative business sectors."
Many of Austin's leaders are less concerned about the economy and more concerned about being able to support an economy that sustains two times, three times or even seven times as many people.
After all, experts say, market forces and technological innovations will almost unilaterally dictate how Austin's business landscape matures, so the emphasis now is on providing the infrastructure a population of 7.8 million people will need. It's that infrastructure -- roads, water supplies and energy sources -- that are most concerning to those charged with planning Austin's future.
Austin's transportation system, for instance, already is lagging behind the population curve. An immediate and long-term lack of funding offers a bleak picture for the ability to move Central Texans from Point A to Point B.
For Mike Rollins, president of the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce, Austin's transportation inadequacies comprise the bulk of his concern for Austin -- not just economically, but socially.
Regional transportation authorities have developed plans that offer relief for the next 25 years. Unfortunately, there's never going to be enough money to carry out those plans, says Bruce Byron, executive director of the Capital Area Transportation Coalition.
"We only have enough money to address one-third of the known projects, so it's not unfair to say that there is a funding crisis," Byron says. "We won't be able to address the 50-year population horizon by continuing to do transportation as we do it today."
Byron says Austin soon won't have any choice but to consider a mix of roads and rail systems, but something much more intricate and innovative than previous rail proposals, he says.
Roads are a big worry, but an even bigger problem -- although less visible -- is the area's water supply, which experts say is uncertain.
In 1999, the City of Austin signed a $100 million agreement with the Lower Colorado River Authority to ensure Austin has enough water for the next 50 years. But that contract covers only Austin. Other cities and counties have similar water agreements, but many rural areas are unsure when or how they will guarantee adequate water supplies.
It's more evidence that, as the Austin area grows, regional cooperation becomes paramount.
"Unfortunately, the regional cooperation we need is still not there yet," Hockenyos says.
"Everyone says the long-term planning is important, but when you get down to it there's a tendency to deal with the short term. We need to focus on developing regional infrastructure further, mainly transportation and water supplies, and only then will we be acting like a region."
During the next decade or two, observers say, Austin needs to solidify regional infrastructure by reaching out to smaller surrounding communities. Looking toward the 50-year horizon, they say, that regional cooperation must be extended to Austin's largest neighbor to the south: San Antonio.
During the next few decades, growth in the Austin area is projected to dramatically shift directions. Rather than a boom north toward Georgetown, the Austin area likely will stretch south to San Antonio, whose suburban growth has been creeping north along I-35, economists predict.
"I think in the future, Austin and San Antonio will be spoken about the same way Dallas and Fort Worth are today," Hockenyos says.
So here we go.
.................................................. .....................................
Austin population to pop
Study predicts metro area will be home to 7.8M residents in 2050
Colin Pope
Austin Business Journal Staff
Flash back to 1950: Austin is a humble Texas town, a small city where politicians and college students converge. I-35 and other major roads have yet to be considered, and the town is an oasis for the 135,000 people who live here.
Now, flash forward to 2050: The Austin area is one of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States. It has outgrown San Antonio decades earlier, and its size and affluence rival the Boston area and eclipse the Detroit area. More than 7.8 million people now call Central Texas home.
In less than 50 years, the population of this high tech hub is projected to top 7.8 million, according to new population projections released this month by American City Business Journals Inc., the parent company of the Austin Business Journal.
The sobering projections, which mirror what others have projected in recent years, mean the Austin metro area's population in 2050 will equal the current population of Northern California's Bay Area, home to San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland.
Austin was among 729 metropolitan and micropolitan areas studied by American City Business Journals. The projection formula made the conservative assumption that areas would continue to expand or contract at roughly the same pace they have maintained since 1990.
Each area's projected growth rate was determined by averaging its 12 annualized growth rates between successive years and 2002, such as 1990-2002, 1991-2002 and 1992-2002. The formula assumed a constant rate of growth, although actual growth rates will vary.
The projection for Austin provides a staunch reality check for many of Austin's leaders, who are charged with preserving Austin for generations to come. But with an estimated population of 7.8 million in just 47 years, can Austin remain Austin?
"That's the fundamental question of our time," says Robin Rather, an Austin entrepreneur and longtime community activist.
Rather, who has helped turn several grassroots efforts into civic powerhouses, says residents and visitors have come to love Austin for its unique characteristics.
"But if the population estimates turn out to be accurate, will they still love it? That's a very, very serious question, and I don't think anyone has the answer," Rather says.
The answer, experts say, can be found only after Austin and surrounding communities come together first as a region to solve Central Texas' fundamental problems concerning water supplies and transportation.
Economists say Austin's business climate in 50 years -- or even 20 years from now -- is almost unimaginable. At the very least, it's unpredictable.
Central Texas economist Ray Perryman, founder and president of Waco-based The Perryman Group Inc., predicts Austin's future will have little to do with the tech industry that has helped Austin become a piece of the global economy.
Instead, Perryman suggests Austin will reinvent itself as the tech industry evolves and broadens. He envisions an Austin that continues to stay on top of innovative technology segments, such as the digital film industry, biotech or the growing business segment researching alternative energy sources.
But exactly what kinds of businesses will form the backbone of Austin's future economy can't be known today, says John Hockenyos, managing director of Austin-based economic research firm Texas Perspectives Inc.
It's very unlikely that we'll have the same business climate in 20 years," Hockenyos says. "In 20 years, Austin may sort of feel the same but it will look different, just as it looked different 20 years ago.
"We can only hope to preserve what underlines Austin's business climate -- the spirit of tolerance, creativity and that entrepreneurial spirit that keeps us on top of innovative business sectors."
Many of Austin's leaders are less concerned about the economy and more concerned about being able to support an economy that sustains two times, three times or even seven times as many people.
After all, experts say, market forces and technological innovations will almost unilaterally dictate how Austin's business landscape matures, so the emphasis now is on providing the infrastructure a population of 7.8 million people will need. It's that infrastructure -- roads, water supplies and energy sources -- that are most concerning to those charged with planning Austin's future.
Austin's transportation system, for instance, already is lagging behind the population curve. An immediate and long-term lack of funding offers a bleak picture for the ability to move Central Texans from Point A to Point B.
For Mike Rollins, president of the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce, Austin's transportation inadequacies comprise the bulk of his concern for Austin -- not just economically, but socially.
Regional transportation authorities have developed plans that offer relief for the next 25 years. Unfortunately, there's never going to be enough money to carry out those plans, says Bruce Byron, executive director of the Capital Area Transportation Coalition.
"We only have enough money to address one-third of the known projects, so it's not unfair to say that there is a funding crisis," Byron says. "We won't be able to address the 50-year population horizon by continuing to do transportation as we do it today."
Byron says Austin soon won't have any choice but to consider a mix of roads and rail systems, but something much more intricate and innovative than previous rail proposals, he says.
Roads are a big worry, but an even bigger problem -- although less visible -- is the area's water supply, which experts say is uncertain.
In 1999, the City of Austin signed a $100 million agreement with the Lower Colorado River Authority to ensure Austin has enough water for the next 50 years. But that contract covers only Austin. Other cities and counties have similar water agreements, but many rural areas are unsure when or how they will guarantee adequate water supplies.
It's more evidence that, as the Austin area grows, regional cooperation becomes paramount.
"Unfortunately, the regional cooperation we need is still not there yet," Hockenyos says.
"Everyone says the long-term planning is important, but when you get down to it there's a tendency to deal with the short term. We need to focus on developing regional infrastructure further, mainly transportation and water supplies, and only then will we be acting like a region."
During the next decade or two, observers say, Austin needs to solidify regional infrastructure by reaching out to smaller surrounding communities. Looking toward the 50-year horizon, they say, that regional cooperation must be extended to Austin's largest neighbor to the south: San Antonio.
During the next few decades, growth in the Austin area is projected to dramatically shift directions. Rather than a boom north toward Georgetown, the Austin area likely will stretch south to San Antonio, whose suburban growth has been creeping north along I-35, economists predict.
"I think in the future, Austin and San Antonio will be spoken about the same way Dallas and Fort Worth are today," Hockenyos says.